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When Smith faced Rice’s predecessor, Del. Knight, last November, she obtained 43.2 percent of the votes — a notable decline for the Democrat, whose party typically has strong turnout in special elections (in contrast to the GOP, which often has lower turnout in these instances).
As mentioned in the tweet above, this district favored Trump by +14 in 2024; as of yesterday, it leaned +25 towards the GOP (based on the figures from Wednesday morning). So, what’s happening here? Did Republicans unexpectedly perform well in a special election, or is there more to interpret from these figures?
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